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Great breakdown. I was going to post something similar, but you nailed it with a much longer and thorough breakdown. People really don't understand how worthless 94% accuracy is. Even right now I could hit 99%+ accuracy by just saying "no COVID" on every person I see. And if the dogs have a 94% true positive and 94% true negative rate, that's STILL terrible. It would mean that if the dog sniffed me and gave the signal for testing positive for COVID since the vast majority of the population do not have COVID, we're talking at most single-digit likelihood I truly have COVID (I'm too lazy to calculate it out right now). I wish ROC curves were used and understood in layman media. Visualizing false positive and false negative rates really helps to understand 'accuracy'.
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